The Kansas City Chiefs aren’t just clinging to playoff hopes—they’re sprinting toward them. After a gritty 23-20 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12 at Arrowhead Stadium on November 23, 2025, their chances of making the postseason have climbed to over 60%, according to the New York Times NFL playoff simulator and ESPN’s Football Power Index. The win wasn’t pretty, but it was decisive. And in the NFL, that’s all that matters.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Here’s the thing: if the Chiefs win their next game—against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving night—they’ll jump to an 82% playoff probability. Win all six remaining games? That number hits 96%. That’s not a hope. That’s a guarantee in almost every statistical model out there.
“You win out over these four games, it’s all over,” said Jackson Durham, host of Chiefs Report by Chat Sports, in his Wednesday analysis. “You don’t have to think about much anymore.”
Even a single loss doesn’t kill their chances. Lose to Dallas? Still a 79% shot. Lose in Week 14 against the Houston Texans? 68%. Lose in Week 15 to the Los Angeles Chargers? Still 68%. Even if they drop their Christmas Day showdown with the Denver Broncos, they’re still at 78%. That’s not luck. That’s dominance.
The Schedule Is a Gauntlet
Don’t let the win-loss record fool you. The Chiefs’ path to the playoffs isn’t a stroll—it’s a climb up a cliff. Their remaining slate includes:
- Thursday, November 27, 2025: @ Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)
- Sunday, December 7, 2025: vs. Houston Texans (6-5)
- Sunday, December 14, 2025: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
- Sunday, December 21, 2025: @ Tennessee Titans (1-10)
- Thursday, December 25, 2025: vs. Denver Broncos (9-2)
- Sunday, January 4, 2026: @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-9)
Two of those six games are against teams with winning records. Three are divisional rivals. And one—Christmas Day against Denver—is a potential AFC West decider. The Titans and Raiders are bottom-feeders, sure. But in the NFL, even the worst teams play like champions when they have nothing to lose.
Why This Matters More Than the Record
The Chiefs are 6-3. That’s good. But it’s not great. Not compared to the Denver Broncos (9-2), who sit atop the division, or the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers, both at 7-4 and lurking in the wild-card race.
What makes this stretch different? Timing. The Thanksgiving game against Dallas isn’t just a national TV spotlight—it’s a statement. Dak Prescott’s Cowboys are dangerous. They’ve beaten the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers. If the Chiefs can win on the road against a team like that, it sends a message: we’re still the team to beat.
And don’t forget the emotional weight. After losing to Denver two weeks ago, the Chiefs needed to prove they weren’t falling apart. They didn’t just survive against the Colts—they won in overtime, on the road, with a defense that had been leaking points. That’s resilience.
The Bigger Picture
This isn’t just about making the playoffs. It’s about seeding. A 6-3 record puts them in the mix for a top-two seed in the AFC. That means home-field advantage through the conference playoffs. That means avoiding a potential rematch with the Broncos in the divisional round. That means resting starters in Week 18 if things break right.
Compare this to 2023, when the Chiefs barely scraped into the playoffs as a 12-5 team and had to win three road games just to reach the Super Bowl. This year, they’re on track to avoid that nightmare. And that’s the real goal.
What’s Next?
Everything hinges on Thursday night. Win against Dallas? The chatter shifts from “Can they make it?” to “How far can they go?” Lose? Suddenly, every game becomes a must-win. The pressure doesn’t vanish—it just gets louder.
Coach Andy Reid has been here before. Patrick Mahomes has been here before. But this team? This version of the Chiefs? They’re different. They’re older. They’re battle-tested. And they’re not done yet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the Chiefs’ current playoff probability, and how is it calculated?
As of November 26, 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs have a 61% chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times NFL playoff simulator and ESPN’s Football Power Index. These models simulate the rest of the season tens of thousands of times, factoring in strength of schedule, point differentials, and recent performance to estimate postseason odds.
How does a loss in Week 13 affect their chances compared to a loss later?
A loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13 drops their playoff odds to 79%—still strong. But a loss in Week 14 or 15 (against Houston or LA) cuts it to 68%. Losing in Week 16 to Tennessee barely hurts them (78%), because by then, they’re likely already in. Timing matters more than the loss itself.
Why is the game against Denver on Christmas Day so critical?
The Denver Broncos lead the AFC West at 9-2. A win by the Chiefs would pull them within one game of the division lead with only two games left. It’s not just about playoff seeding—it’s about control of their own destiny. Lose, and they’d need help from other teams to win the division.
Could the Chiefs still miss the playoffs if they lose two games?
Yes—but only under very specific conditions. If they lose to Dallas and then to Houston or LA, and if the Bills, Chargers, and Ravens all win out, they could slip to the 7th seed or worse. But with a 6-3 record and a favorable finish, that scenario is statistically unlikely. Even with two losses, their odds stay above 50% unless those losses come against the Titans or Raiders.
How does this compare to past Chiefs playoff runs?
In 2023, the Chiefs entered Week 12 at 6-4 and finished 12-5, barely making the playoffs as a 5th seed. This year, they’re on a better pace, with tougher opponents behind them and easier ones ahead. Their current path resembles their 2020 run—where they won 14 games and earned a first-round bye. They’re not just aiming to qualify—they’re aiming to dominate.
What role does Patrick Mahomes play in this playoff push?
Mahomes has been elite this season: 28 touchdowns, only 5 interceptions, and a 108.9 passer rating. But more than stats, it’s his poise under pressure that matters. In the overtime win over Indianapolis, he led a 75-yard drive in 2:18 with no timeouts. That’s championship DNA. When the game’s on the line, the Chiefs trust him to deliver—and statistically, he’s the reason their odds stay so high.
